The hottest monthly rubber price is still underest

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Yuanyue glue price is still underestimated, and there is still potential for future rebound

the 0811 contract of Shanghai's main glue in that week was first suppressed and then increased. At the beginning of the week, the contract price fell from 23000 yuan/ton to 22130 yuan/ton. However, prices rebounded strongly on Friday, reaching a weekly high of 23200 yuan/ton and finally closing at 22995 yuan/ton. Although Yuanyue rubber price has shown the characteristics of anti falling rebound, the author believes that the current price level is still underestimated, and there should still be further rebound potential in the future

there is no doubt that the continuous rise of the US dollar is the main influence force of the current general decline in commodity prices. Affected by this, the price of Tianjiao (22880100.00,0.44%, bar), which is closely related to the fluctuation of crude oil price, fell significantly. Following the decline of crude oil, the Tokyo Jiao 0901 contract fell by 12.50 yen/kg that week to close at 308.60 yen/kg. If the rise of the US dollar cannot stop, the price of crude oil may still continue to fall under pressure, and the short selling atmosphere in the market will have a negative impact on the price trend of natural rubber, which will continue to produce good self-lubricating hydraulic components. The strength of the US dollar was driven more by the weakness of the euro zone currency than by US economic data. After the general decline of commodity prices, the later inflationary pressure will also ease, so the expectation of US dollar interest rate hike will all be weakened. When the US dollar index approaches the key resistance level, the probability of a correction in the US dollar will gradually increase. Therefore, in the short term, the rebound of the dollar will still have a negative impact on commodity prices, but its influence is expected to gradually weaken

when Shanghai Jiao entered the delivery month with 31000 positions in September, the market has basically established the fact that there will be a huge amount of physical delivery. As of September 5, there were still more than 25000 rubber positions in Shanghai in September, equivalent to more than 63000 tons. Such a huge amount of delivery has never occurred in the past four years. At present, the far monthly premium of glue in September is still more than 4000 yuan/ton. How such a huge price difference structure will be resolved also leaves us with a huge suspense. If the glue is delivered in September and processed into fence type aluminum base lead alloy composite anode plate; Using microalloying theory to develop Pb Ag Al alloy for zinc electrowinning, the warehouse receipt will be transferred to November, which means that the receiver will have a huge loss, so it is difficult to imagine that the current price of the receiver will be transferred to November. Compared with the long-term price, the current domestic spot price is still maintained at more than 26000 yuan/ton, and the possibility of warehouse receipt transferring to spot should be greater than the possibility of transferring to long-term. Therefore, the spot pressure that glue will face in November will not be very great. If the glue price in the spot market can remain stable, the glue may get out of the market of make-up in November

note: as the core element of electro-hydraulic servo control, this reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

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