Analysis of the latest PVC market

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Recent PVC market analysis

with the successful listing of steel and early indica rice in Shanghai Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Recently, the market has repeatedly heard that Dalian exchange will also launch PVC trading in May. Let's have a general understanding of PVC and its market situation

polyvinyl chloride resin (PVC) is an important organic synthetic material. Together with PE, PP, PS and ABS, it is known as the world's five general resins. PVC plays an important role in the plastic industry, and its main products are PVC pipe profiles, PVC agricultural films, packaging, etc. PVC is widely used in industry, agriculture, construction, electric power, automobile, home appliances, packaging, public utilities and other industries because of its outstanding cost performance

pvc products are divided into hard (for example, plastic film, fiber wire and other sample clamping surface products, building materials and soft product building materials. Hard product building materials mainly include pipes, profiles, profiled materials, plates, auto parts, etc., accounting for about 65% of the consumption proportion, while soft product building materials include wires and electricity. 3. Effective experimental width: 500mm; cables, films and sheets, conveyor belts, daily necessities (shoes, toys, door curtains, sealing strips) Artificial leather and bags account for about 35% of consumption

since 2003, China's PVC production and apparent consumption have been rising. The output climbed from 4million tons in 2003 to 9.72 million tons in 2007, and the production capacity also increased significantly. In 2003, China's production capacity was only 5.23 million tons/year, and by 2008, it had been greatly expanded to 15.81 million tons, a threefold increase. Consumption also increased from 6.25 million tons/year in 2003 to 10.4 million tons/year in 2007. In this case, the chlor alkali industry is expanding blindly, and various projects are launched one after another. Soon, China became the world's largest producer and consumer of PVC, with a production capacity of more than a quarter of the world. The PVC industry chain is very long, with more than 10000 production, trade and consumption enterprises

the global economic crisis broke out in 2008. The overall structural adjustment of the energy industry caused by this financial storm is particularly prominent in the PVC industry. After the huge plunge in crude oil prices, the huge cost gap between coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry was squeezed in an instant, and even formed an upside down. Let's leave caustic soda aside. In just over half a year, China's PVC industry has triggered a series of market pattern adjustments due to the change of industry cost structure. From the beginning, the battle between the market share and price of calcium carbide and ethylene PVC resins has escalated to the battle for the survival of domestic PVC resins and imported PVC resins. Due to the sharp contraction of global market demand, product prices have fallen again and again, and the arbitrage space necessary for export business has disappeared. The export of PVC resin in China has basically stagnated since August 2008

after 2009, although the economic data of the first quarter showed that China's economy showed signs of gradual recovery, there seemed to be no essential difference in the PVC industry, and the survival situation of enterprises was still worrying. The impact of the financial crisis made the real estate industry and the automotive industry continue to be depressed. It has been difficult to raise product prices. Even a small increase is driven by the cost of the entire industrial chain, and the profitability of enterprises has not changed significantly. According to statistics, the cumulative monthly PVC output was 1.969 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. PVC output in March was 701000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; It increased by 5.3% month on month. The cumulative output of PVC in the first quarter of this year was 1.969 million tons, a decrease of 7.8% compared with the same period last year. The upstream raw material output of chlor alkali products also showed a year-on-year downward trend. In March, the national output of calcium carbide was 1.088 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. The cumulative output of calcium carbide in the first quarter was 2.919 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. In March, the performance consumption of plastic granulation in China accounted for almost 1.5% of the total industrial energy consumption, which was nearly 1.5% higher than that in Britain. The raw salt production of the country was 3.87 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. The cumulative raw salt production in the first quarter was 7.815 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. The above data shows that the overall operating rate of chlor alkali enterprises is still not optimistic. The downstream demand for PVC is still relatively low, which makes the rise in the cost of raw materials such as calcium carbide unable to be transmitted to the downstream, and it is difficult for enterprises to improve their production enthusiasm

generally speaking, when the impact of the global financial crisis lingers, PVC demand may remain depressed in the short term. At present, China has a serious overcapacity and a serious imbalance between supply and demand. Therefore, the most practical and effective way is to take strict administrative measures to accelerate the integration and adjustment of the whole industry, shut down a number of small enterprises, so as to reduce the pain caused by this sharp transformation, and guide large and competitive enterprises out of difficulties and regain their vitality

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