The hottest global copper inventory, the lowest co

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The lowest copper price in the global copper inventory in 9 years welcomes the good times

Citigroup said that copper prices rebounded 6% from the low of $5800 per ton in early September to $6200, and copper supply showed obvious signs of tightening. Among them, the traceable global inventory measured by consumption days is at the lowest level in nine years, and the warehouse receipts are written off faster than the same period in previous years. Citigroup said that copper prices will continue to depend on the macro environment in the coming months

LME copper rose 0.5% to $6280.00 on Tuesday, still down about 9% since early March

for the copper market in the fourth quarter, CITIC futures believes that there is a high probability of copper price oscillation and recovery, the global economic growth is stable, and China has started the climax of infrastructure construction during the year, bringing growth highlights to demand; The release of new refining capacity is slow, and the rate of inventory accumulation will slow down. There are four main logics:

first, the U.S. economy is growing strongly, the expectation of the fourth interest rate hike in the year is increasing, and the back-end space for the appreciation of the dollar is small; Since July, China has increased infrastructure investment, which will promote stable economic growth

second, in the fourth quarter, the overhaul capacity of domestic smelting up and down travel safety device plants was only one, and the maximum static load was 5kn, 2 In the measurement of refineries, the new capacity may not be released as expected due to factors such as process and working capital, which will cause the new output of refined copper to be less than expected

third, the peak supply of copper in mines has passed, and the downward trend of supply growth is determined; China has implemented a strict import restriction policy on the import of solid waste, and the import of scrap copper has been significantly reduced

fourth, electricity generation will become the largest increase in copper industry consumption in the fourth quarter

CITIC futures believes that the operating range of Lun copper price in the fourth quarter is $6000-6600/ton, corresponding to the operating range of Shanghai copper is $49000-52500/ton

in addition, founder medium-term futures pointed out that the copper market is currently in the "golden nine silver ten" consumption peak season, and the superimposed infrastructure has accelerated the implementation, which has a strong support for the copper market. The price difference of fertilized waste fell, and the demand for scrap copper weakened, boosting the demand for refined copper. The global dominant refined copper inventory has continued to decline since the third quarter. As of September 21, the inventory of the three exchanges and bonded areas totaled 912000 tons, down 241000 tons from the same period last year. "After the negative factors are exhausted, inventories continue to decline. It is expected that the focus of copper prices will still move up in October. In the short term, due to the hawkish interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the dollar boosted by the Italian deficit problem, the possibility of short-term weak oscillation cannot be ruled out."

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