The hottest global economy dominates the long-term

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Long term weakness of crude oil dominated by the global economy

market review

Figure 1: trend chart of continuous superposition of crude oil and fuel 902 contract

trend chart of continuous superposition of crude oil and fuel 902 contract. (source: Hongyuan futures)

1 Crude oil

international crude oil futures have shown an accelerated decline since the end of September. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and the nationalization of AIG, the signs of the financial crisis appeared. With the disclosure of increasingly bad economic data, and then the central banks of governments all over the world played a big role, they launched market rescue policies focusing on reducing the construction interest rate of more than 60 workers and rescuing major financial institutions. However, the market did not buy it, and the commodity prices of major stock indexes in Europe and the United States still plummeted in less than a month, Oil prices range from around $100 to $60. The arrival of November makes the U.S. general election the focus of market attention, but the Democratic candidate Barack Obama is obviously more accepted by the market. The oil price has fluctuated above $60 recently, which seems to have reached the bottom of the stage

2. Fuel oil

due to the rest of the National Day holiday, Nie Zuoren analyzed that the sharp fall in the domestic futures market was more violent. After the 9-day rest, domestic commodities fell by the limit continuously, the market risk increased, and some investors ran out of positions. The fuel oil 902 contract fell from 4006 on October 6 to 2499 on November 7, which will waste a lot of energy stored by it, down nearly 40%

Fundamentals: supply still exceeds demand

Figure 2: global crude oil consumption

trend chart of global crude oil consumption. (data source: EIA)

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